Blog

May 23, 2023

Here comes Rahm: Big names will rise as Muirfield Village shows teeth

5 Min Read Draws and Fades A Change Text Size DUBLIN, Ohio – Davis Riley may

5 Min Read

Draws and Fades

A

Change Text Size

DUBLIN, Ohio – Davis Riley may have taken the first-round lead at Muirfield Village for the second year running, but a bunch of big PGA TOUR stars sit well poised behind him after the opening round at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday.

Riley stole the solo lead late Thursday with a final-hole birdie to shoot 5-under 67 on a tough day out for most of the field where the scoring average was 74. With hard and fast conditions expected to continue over the final three rounds, Jack's place is about to become an ultimate ball-striking test.

The recent Zurich Classic of New Orleans winners (with teammate Nick Hardy) sits one shot clear of England's Matt Wallace and two ahead of a seven-way tie for third that includes Jordan Spieth.

But among others under par following the opening round are known ball-striking machines and TOUR winners Jon Rahm (70), Patrick Cantlay (71), Sungjae Im (70), Adam Scott (70), Viktor Hovland (71), Collin Morikawa (71) and Tyrrell Hatton (71).

Excellent weather is expected to continue over the final three rounds with the agronomy team, and host Jack Nicklaus, getting exactly what they hoped for.

"I like dry golf courses," 18-time major winner Nicklaus said. "I think they bring the best out in a golfer. It forces them to think about how they play, just not rear back and hit it."

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook

+450: Jon Rahm (-2, T10)

+850: Patrick Cantlay (-1, T17)

+1100: Jordan Spieth (-3, T3)

+1600: Rory McIlroy (E, T33)

+1600: Shane Lowry (-3, T3)

+1800: Tyrrell Hatton (-1, T17)

+1800: Collin Morikawa (-1, T17)

+1800: Sungjae Im (-2, T10)

+1800: Viktor Hovland (-1, T17)

+2000: Scottie Scheffler (+2, T59)

This is the point where I could point out my two selections for winner's pre-tournament are now the top two favorites but let's be honest… it wasn't exactly going out on a limb to pick those two former Memorial Tournament winners. Even still, I won't be abandoning them now.

Check out who I expect to kick on from here, and who might struggle.

Jon Rahm (+450 to win, -2, T10)

Rahm won this tournament in hard and fast conditions in 2020 and quite frankly – as a former U.S. Open champion – will thrive the tougher it gets. He was fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the first round – the biggest predictive factor for Memorial Tournament winners over the last eight years. The Spaniard had an unhappy day on the greens, losing -0.944 strokes with his putter, but I expect him to rebound in that metric. My not so hot take is he's on his way to the second win at Muirfield Village that was taken from him thanks to an untimely COVID result in 2021.

Patrick Cantlay (+850 to win, -1, T17)

The 2019 and 2021 Memorial winner failed to do anything flashy on Thursday but he did keep himself well and truly in the mix despite having an uncharacteristic striking effort. Cantlay found just 6 of 14 fairways and nine of 18 greens yet still scrambled his way to an under-par effort. Now you could look at this and say his swing is out of sync and therefore not someone to back… but it is my belief he's had his ‘bad’ round for the week and is still in striking distance just as things will start to toughen up.

Shane Lowry (+1600 to win, -3, T3)

The Irishman was incredible out of the starting blocks, going on a five-birdie run inside his first six holes. He gave two of those shots back on the two most difficult holes of the day before grinding his way to the finish. As a top 20 SG: Tee-to-Green player this season (Ranked 35th in round one), Lowry has the potential to climb the boards, especially if he finds his mojo off the tee again. He was 102nd on Thursday in SG: Off-the-Tee but ranks 26th on the season. If there is a concern, it is on the greens. Lowry was excellent with the putter on Thursday, eighth in SG: Putting, but he ranks a dismal 180th in the metric this season.

Scottie Scheffler (+2000 to win, +2, T59)

The world No. 1 is certainly capable of rebounding from a tough day at the office that saw him down on his usual ball-striking prowess, but with his putting woes continuing, you just can't take the +2000 number with any great confidence. It was a disastrous day on the greens where he ranked 116th out of 119 in SG: Putting, losing a whopping -3.147 strokes to the field average. Scheffler missed five putts inside 10 feet and made none from outside 10 feet. His longest made putt of the day was just 5’11".

Davis Riley (+2500 to win, -5, 1st)

Riley forged his way to the top of the leaderboard thanks to ranking second in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Around the Green and a respectable 34th in SG: Putting. The problem is, over this season, he ranks a decent 26th in Approach but is 179th around the greens and 146th in putting. You have to expect some regression as the course gets gnarly.

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.

Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.